Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Singapore banks' loan growth pegged to hit 8-10% in 2014
Singapore banks' loan growth pegged to hit 8-10% in 2014
Housing loans seen to ease.
According to UOB Kay Hian, it expects Singapore banks to register loan growth of 8-10% in 2014.
Here's more from UOB Kay Hian:
Strong loan growth of about 15% in 2013 is partially driven by US$-denominated trade finance facilities for Chinese customers. Demand from these Chinese customers may moderate in 2015 as expectations of the US dollar depreciating against the renminbi will be reduced due to the eventual tapering of QE3.
We expect moderation in growth in housing loans in 2H14, which will be compensated by stronger growth in corporate loans. We expect stronger growth in corporate loans as global economy recovers and regional growth is sustained.
- wong chee tat :)
Housing loans seen to ease.
According to UOB Kay Hian, it expects Singapore banks to register loan growth of 8-10% in 2014.
Here's more from UOB Kay Hian:
Strong loan growth of about 15% in 2013 is partially driven by US$-denominated trade finance facilities for Chinese customers. Demand from these Chinese customers may moderate in 2015 as expectations of the US dollar depreciating against the renminbi will be reduced due to the eventual tapering of QE3.
We expect moderation in growth in housing loans in 2H14, which will be compensated by stronger growth in corporate loans. We expect stronger growth in corporate loans as global economy recovers and regional growth is sustained.
- wong chee tat :)
Expect 5% annual transport fare hikes till 2016
Expect 5% annual transport fare hikes till 2016
Before slowing to 2.7% yearly increases.
"With an estimated 8% of accumulated fare revision not implemented in 2012/13, we expect significant fare hikes of 5% p.a. over the next three years, before reverting to a more normalised annual rise of 2.7%," said Maybank Kim Eng in its latest land transport sector report.
"Coupled with our long-term ridership forecasts of 2.3% p.a., we expect sector revenue to be 43% higher in 2018," it added.
The research firm further noted that the Downtown line (DTL) will open in three stages over the next four years.
The resulting traffic cannibalisation once DTL Stage 2 operates in 2016 would have a "significant" negative impact on SMRT, and Maybank believes the market has largely ignored this negative implication and expect growing concern in the years ahead.
"We see the current business models for the PTOs as unsustainable and expect imminent changes. We also expect a transition to the new rail financing (NRF) framework for all existing rail lines over the next few years," reckoned Maybank.
This led the research firm to prefer ComfortDelGro among land transport stocks, given the fact that it is "anchored by stable acquisition-led earnings growth from its overseas units" and that comfortDelGro's valuation remains more attractive than SMRT.
- wong chee tat :)
Before slowing to 2.7% yearly increases.
"With an estimated 8% of accumulated fare revision not implemented in 2012/13, we expect significant fare hikes of 5% p.a. over the next three years, before reverting to a more normalised annual rise of 2.7%," said Maybank Kim Eng in its latest land transport sector report.
"Coupled with our long-term ridership forecasts of 2.3% p.a., we expect sector revenue to be 43% higher in 2018," it added.
The research firm further noted that the Downtown line (DTL) will open in three stages over the next four years.
The resulting traffic cannibalisation once DTL Stage 2 operates in 2016 would have a "significant" negative impact on SMRT, and Maybank believes the market has largely ignored this negative implication and expect growing concern in the years ahead.
"We see the current business models for the PTOs as unsustainable and expect imminent changes. We also expect a transition to the new rail financing (NRF) framework for all existing rail lines over the next few years," reckoned Maybank.
This led the research firm to prefer ComfortDelGro among land transport stocks, given the fact that it is "anchored by stable acquisition-led earnings growth from its overseas units" and that comfortDelGro's valuation remains more attractive than SMRT.
- wong chee tat :)
3 biggest reasons why home prices are unlikely to crash next year
3 biggest reasons why home prices are unlikely to crash next year
No 'excessive' correction for headline prices.
According to OCBC Investment Research, barring a macro crisis, it does not believe headline prices will correct excessively (>20%) in 2014.
This is due to three reasons.
Here's more:
1) The direct impact of a physical oversupply (of homes which are already sold) is first on vacancy rates and subsequently on rental prices.
While falling rents will pressure home prices, we do not see many home-owners force-selling into a softening market given that a negative rental carry is the norm in Singapore historically and that the average individual balance sheet remains fairly benign.
2) The level of unsoldpipeline held by developers (which forms the primary supply) is currently at 36k units. This is lower than the 10-year historical average of 43k units and is not overly onerous.
While developers will likely ease prices ahead to move inventory, a fire-sale situation is unlikely to ensue given relatively strong balance sheets.
3) Finally, we believe the data currently point to a fairly high price elasticity of demand. That is, significant numbers of buyers will come into the market at every incremental price dip.
This is illustrated when CapitaLand introduced discounts at its 1715-unit d’Leedon in 1Q13 and subsequently saw 543 more units sold by 3Q13.
Similarly, developers which set lower prices at recent new launches (Sky Vue at Bishan and Thomson Three at Bright Hill Dr.) saw firm performances, despite the Jul-13 TDSR measures.
- wong chee tat :)
No 'excessive' correction for headline prices.
According to OCBC Investment Research, barring a macro crisis, it does not believe headline prices will correct excessively (>20%) in 2014.
This is due to three reasons.
Here's more:
1) The direct impact of a physical oversupply (of homes which are already sold) is first on vacancy rates and subsequently on rental prices.
While falling rents will pressure home prices, we do not see many home-owners force-selling into a softening market given that a negative rental carry is the norm in Singapore historically and that the average individual balance sheet remains fairly benign.
2) The level of unsoldpipeline held by developers (which forms the primary supply) is currently at 36k units. This is lower than the 10-year historical average of 43k units and is not overly onerous.
While developers will likely ease prices ahead to move inventory, a fire-sale situation is unlikely to ensue given relatively strong balance sheets.
3) Finally, we believe the data currently point to a fairly high price elasticity of demand. That is, significant numbers of buyers will come into the market at every incremental price dip.
This is illustrated when CapitaLand introduced discounts at its 1715-unit d’Leedon in 1Q13 and subsequently saw 543 more units sold by 3Q13.
Similarly, developers which set lower prices at recent new launches (Sky Vue at Bishan and Thomson Three at Bright Hill Dr.) saw firm performances, despite the Jul-13 TDSR measures.
- wong chee tat :)
Mass-market home prices predicted to slip 5-15% in 2014
Mass-market home prices predicted to slip 5-15% in 2014
Will there also be a drop in posh home prices?
According to OCBC Investment Research, while the Fed Fund rate is expected to stay at low levels until at least 2015, it expects increasing caution to set in as the overhang from government measures remains in play and the market grapple with an onerous pipeline of physical supply coming ahead.
Over FY14, OCBC's forecast for mass-market residential prices is a dip of 5%-15% and 0%-10% fall for high-end residential prices.
Here's more from OCBC:
In light of the subdued outlook for the domestic residential sector, we favor large-cap developers with strong balance sheets and diversified exposure across regional real estate markets. Our top picks in the space are CapitaLand, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$3.77 (30% RNAV disc.), and Keppel Land, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.09 (30% discount to RNAV).
- wong chee tat :)
Will there also be a drop in posh home prices?
According to OCBC Investment Research, while the Fed Fund rate is expected to stay at low levels until at least 2015, it expects increasing caution to set in as the overhang from government measures remains in play and the market grapple with an onerous pipeline of physical supply coming ahead.
Over FY14, OCBC's forecast for mass-market residential prices is a dip of 5%-15% and 0%-10% fall for high-end residential prices.
Here's more from OCBC:
In light of the subdued outlook for the domestic residential sector, we favor large-cap developers with strong balance sheets and diversified exposure across regional real estate markets. Our top picks in the space are CapitaLand, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$3.77 (30% RNAV disc.), and Keppel Land, rated BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.09 (30% discount to RNAV).
- wong chee tat :)
HDB unveils 8,952 build-to-order, balance flats in November
HDB unveils 8,952 build-to-order, balance flats in November
Its largest BTO, SBF exercise to date.
In a release, HDB launched 8,952 flats for sale in a mix of mature and non-mature towns/estates under the Nov 2013 joint Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. This is HDB’s largest joint BTO and SBF exercise so far.
This launch brings the total BTO flat supply in 2013 to 25,139 units, in line with HDB’s commitment to launch 25,000 BTO flats for sale this year.
Together with the 7,074 balance flats offered under the May and Nov 2013 SBF exercises, as well as an additional 1,355 bonus 2-room flats in the Jul and Sep 2013 BTO exercises, HDB has offered a total of 33,568 flats for sale in 2013 to meet the housing demand of our people.
- wong chee tat :)
Its largest BTO, SBF exercise to date.
In a release, HDB launched 8,952 flats for sale in a mix of mature and non-mature towns/estates under the Nov 2013 joint Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. This is HDB’s largest joint BTO and SBF exercise so far.
This launch brings the total BTO flat supply in 2013 to 25,139 units, in line with HDB’s commitment to launch 25,000 BTO flats for sale this year.
Together with the 7,074 balance flats offered under the May and Nov 2013 SBF exercises, as well as an additional 1,355 bonus 2-room flats in the Jul and Sep 2013 BTO exercises, HDB has offered a total of 33,568 flats for sale in 2013 to meet the housing demand of our people.
- wong chee tat :)
HDB Rolls Out Record Number of Flats for Sale
HDB Rolls Out Record Number of Flats for Sale
Notes:
1) * Come in two sizes of 35 sqm (Type 1) and 45 sqm (Type 2).
2) ^ The assumed housing grants are meant for applicants applying as a family nucleus or two singles under the Joint Singles Scheme for a 2-room BTO flat. SHG is also applicable only to 2-room, 3-room and 4-room flats in the non-mature estates:
i) 2-room flat: $60,000 (comprising AHG of $40,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
ii) 3-room flat: $50,000 (comprising AHG of $30,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
iii) 4-room flat: $35,000 (comprising AHG of $15,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
iv) 5-room flat / 3Gen: $10,000 (AHG only)
The actual grant amounts vary based on income and choice of flat type. Read more on various CPF Housing Grants available.
3) # SAs are sold on a 30-year lease, beginning from the date of key collection. Prices are inclusive of the elderly-friendly fittings/finishes. 50% of the supply is set aside for the SA Priority Scheme under which eligible applicants can right-size to an SA in the same town as or within 2 km from their current flat/property, or apply for an SA to live near or with parents/married child.
4) @ Singles who apply under the Single Singapore Citizen Scheme will pay $15,000 more than the married couples. Eligible singles can also apply for AHG and SHG. The actual grant amounts will vary based on income. Read more on the various CPF Housing Grants available.
Notes:
1) ^The assumed housing grants are meant for applicants applying as a family nucleus. SHG is also applicable only to 2-room, 3-room and 4-room flats in the non-mature estates:
3) Please refer to esales.hdb.gov.sg to check the lease commencement date of each block.
- wong chee tat :)
Date issued : 26 Nov 2013
Today, HDB launched 8,952 flats for sale in a mix of mature and non-mature towns/estates under the Nov 2013 joint Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. This is HDB’s largest joint BTO and SBF exercise so far.
2This launch brings the total BTO flat supply in 2013 to 25,139 units, in line with HDB’s commitment to launch 25,000 BTO flats for sale this year. Together with the 7,074 balance flats offered under the May and Nov 2013 SBF exercises, as well as an additional 1,355 bonus 2-room flats in the Jul and Sep 2013 BTO exercises, HDB has offered a total of 33,568 flats for sale in 2013 to meet the housing demand of our people.
BTO Exercise Offering 4,978 Flats
3HDB will offer 4,978 BTO flats over six projects in five non-mature towns, namely Bukit Batok, Hougang, Jurong West, Sembawang and Woodlands. A wide range of flats, including Studio Apartments (SAs), 2-room to 5-room flats, as well as 3Gen flats, is offered to meet the diverse housing needs of first-timers, second-timers, multi-generation families, elderly and singles.
4First-timers will continue to enjoy priority flat allocation with at least 85% (for 4-room and 5-room) and 70% (for 2-room and 3-room) of the BTO flat supply in non-mature towns/estates set aside for them. Eligible singles can submit their applications to buy a 2-room flat in Admiralty Grove or West Ridges @ Bukit Batok. Applicants with a multi-generation family comprising at least a married/courting couple and their parent(s) listed in the application will also be eligible to purchase a 3Gen flat in Boon Lay View.
5The Multi-Generation Priority Scheme Under the MGPS, HDB will set aside up to 15% of the SAs, 2-room and 3-room flats in a BTO project (subject to a minimum of 20 units each) for parents applying under Multi-Generation Priority Scheme (MGPS). The same number of 2-room and bigger flats will be set aside in the same BTO project for their married children. (MGPS) for parents and married children to apply jointly for flats in the same BTO project will be available to those applying for flats at Admiralty Grove, Hougang Meadow, Boon Lay View and West Ridges @ Bukit Batok. In addition, 50% of the SA supply in Hougang Meadow will be reserved for eligible elderly applicants under the Studio Apartment Priority Scheme (SAPS).
6Eligible first-timer households can enjoy up to $60,000 of housing grants, comprising the Additional CPF Housing Grant (up to $40,000) and Special CPF Housing Grant (up to $20,000). With these grants, 2-room, 3-room, 4-room and 5-room flats will be priced from as low as $15,000, $106,000, $201,000 and $297,000 respectively (Table 1). Further details can be found in Annex A1 
(PDF 924KB).
(PDF 924KB).
Table 1: Nov 2013 BTO Prices
Project
|
Flat Type #
|
Selling Price (Excluding Grants@)
|
Selling Price
(Including Grants^) |
| BTO Projects in Non-Mature Estates | |||
Admiralty Grove
 (JPG 469KB) |
2-room*
|
From $75,000
|
From $15,000
|
3-room
|
From $156,000
|
From $106,000
| |
4-room
|
From $238,000
|
From $203,000
| |
5-room
|
From $307,000
|
From $297,000
| |
Boon Lay View
(JPG 458KB) |
3-room
|
From $160,000
|
From $110,000
|
4-room
|
From $256,000
|
From $221,000
| |
5-room
|
From $320,000
|
From $310,000
| |
Boon Lay View
(JPG 129KB) |
3Gen
|
From $321,000
|
From $311,000
|
EastLawn @ Canberra
(JPG 453KB) |
4-room
|
From $236,000
|
From $201,000
|
5-room
|
From $315,000
|
From $305,000
| |
Hougang Meadow
(JPG 533KB) |
Studio Apartment
|
From $84,000
|
-
|
3-room
|
From $187,000
|
From $137,000
| |
4-room
|
From $306,000
|
From $271,000
| |
West Ridges @ Bukit Batok
(JPG 426KB) |
2-room*
|
From $85,000
|
From $25,000
|
3-room
|
From $169,000
|
From $119,000
| |
4-room
|
From $284,000
|
From $249,000
| |
5-room
|
From $373,000
|
From $363,000
| |
Notes:
1) * Come in two sizes of 35 sqm (Type 1) and 45 sqm (Type 2).
2) ^ The assumed housing grants are meant for applicants applying as a family nucleus or two singles under the Joint Singles Scheme for a 2-room BTO flat. SHG is also applicable only to 2-room, 3-room and 4-room flats in the non-mature estates:
i) 2-room flat: $60,000 (comprising AHG of $40,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
ii) 3-room flat: $50,000 (comprising AHG of $30,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
iii) 4-room flat: $35,000 (comprising AHG of $15,000 and SHG of $20,000 where applicable)
iv) 5-room flat / 3Gen: $10,000 (AHG only)
The actual grant amounts vary based on income and choice of flat type. Read more on various CPF Housing Grants available.
3) # SAs are sold on a 30-year lease, beginning from the date of key collection. Prices are inclusive of the elderly-friendly fittings/finishes. 50% of the supply is set aside for the SA Priority Scheme under which eligible applicants can right-size to an SA in the same town as or within 2 km from their current flat/property, or apply for an SA to live near or with parents/married child.
4) @ Singles who apply under the Single Singapore Citizen Scheme will pay $15,000 more than the married couples. Eligible singles can also apply for AHG and SHG. The actual grant amounts will vary based on income. Read more on the various CPF Housing Grants available.
SBF Exercise Offering 3,974 Flats
7HDB will offer another 3,974 balance flats in 11 non-mature and 13 mature towns/estates under the SBF Exercise. They comprise 502 SAs, 405 2-room, 818 3-room, 1,644 4-room, 595 5-room flats and 10 Executive flats.
8Flats offered under the SBF Exercise are reserved for families. At least 95% of the supply of balance flats (excluding SAs) will be set aside for first-timers. In addition, 50% of the SAs will be set aside for eligible elderly flat applicants under the SAPS.
9SBF flats come in a wide range of flat types, locations and selling prices (Table 2). About 14% are already completed, while the remaining 86% are under construction. Pricing details and applicable ethnic quotas of the SBF flats offered are in Annex A2 (PDF 231KB).
(PDF 231KB).
Table 2: Summary of Nov 2013 SBF Prices
Flat Type#
|
Selling Price (excluding Grants)
|
Selling Price (inclusive of Grants)^
|
Non-Mature Towns/Estates
| ||
Studio Apartment
|
From $73,000
|
-
|
3-Room
|
From $164,000
|
From $114,000
|
4-Room
|
From $234,000
|
From $199,000
|
5-Room
|
From $295,000
|
From $285,000
|
Executive Flat
|
From $485,000
|
-
|
Mature Towns/Estates
| ||
Studio Apartment
|
From $86,000
|
-
|
2-Room
|
From $141,000
|
From $101,000
|
3-Room
|
From $188,000
|
From $158,000
|
4-Room
|
From $302,000
|
From $287,000
|
5-Room
|
From $379,000
|
From $369,000
|
Executive Flat
|
From $510,000
|
-
|
Notes:
1) ^The assumed housing grants are meant for applicants applying as a family nucleus. SHG is also applicable only to 2-room, 3-room and 4-room flats in the non-mature estates:
- i) 2-room flat: $60,000 (comprising AHG of $40,000, and SHG of $20,000 where applicable) ii) 3-room flat: $50,000 (comprising AHG of $30,000, and SHG of $20,000 where applicable) iii) 4-room flat: $35,000 (comprising AHG of $15,000, and SHG of $20,000 where applicable) iv) 5-room flat: $10,000 (AHG only) Actual Grant amount will vary based on income and choice of flat. Read more on various CPF Housing Grants available.
3) Please refer to esales.hdb.gov.sg to check the lease commencement date of each block.
Advice for Flat Buyers
10Applicants are strongly advised to apply for a BTO flat in non-mature towns/ estates to enjoy a higher chance of success in securing a flat. Though SBF flats have a shorter waiting time to completion, the number of units in each town is small and is likely to attract high application rates.
11Regular updates on the number of applications submitted for the various flat types/towns/estates will be published on the HDB InfoWEB. Applicants are advised to check for updates before submitting their application.
Application for Nov 2013 Sales Exercises
12Applications for new flats launched in the Nov 2013 BTO and SBF Exercises can be submitted online on the HDB InfoWEB from today, 26 Nov 2013 (Tuesday) to 2 Dec 2013 (Monday). Applicants can apply for only one flat type/category in one town/estate under either the BTO or SBF Exercise.
14For enquiries, the public can:
- - Log on to esales.hdb.gov.sg; or - E-mail hdbsales@hdb.gov.sg; or - Visit the HDB Sales Office to speak with our Customer Relations Executives during office hours (Mon to Fri 8 am to 5 pm, Saturday 8 am to 1 pm).
Next BTO Launch in Jan 2014
15In Jan 2014, HDB will offer about 3,150 BTO flats in Bukit Batok, Jurong West, Punggol, Serangoon and Woodlands. More information on the flats to be offered under the Jan 2014 BTO Exercise is available on the HDB InfoWEB.
- wong chee tat :)
SGX hunting for 89,000 investors with $68.3m in unclaimed shares, dividends
SGX hunting for 89,000 investors with $68.3m in unclaimed shares, dividends
You could be richer than you think.
According to a release, Singapore Exchange (SGX) wants to locate 89,000 investors who own $68.3 million in unclaimed shares and dividends.
These unclaimed assets comprise $14.6 million of SingTel shares and dividends belonging to investors without Central Depository (CDP) accounts. The 15,000 individuals who own these shares bought them at $2.00 each in the company’s 1993 IPO. The shares have returned more than twice that amount since.
Also, the unclaimed assets account for $53.7 million of dividends belonging to investors who cannot be contacted. Each year, thousands of shareholders do not cash their dividend cheques.
Unclaimed dividends are returned to the relevant listed companies after six years. Currently, 74,000 investors have yet to claim $53.7 million in dividends which SGX is safe-keeping.
“This initiative highlights the benefits Singaporeans enjoy when they invest in shares over the long term. We hope to locate the rightful owners of these assets through this exercise while making Singaporeans more aware of the role share investing can play in their financial planning for their retirement and other needs,” said Chew Sutat, Executive Vice President at SGX.
“Many listed companies pay sizeable dividends. In the past 12 months, the 30 companies making up the Straits Times Index paid $15.5 billion in dividends, equivalent to a 3% yield.
We encourage investors to take advantage of SGX’s direct crediting service which automatically deposits their dividends into their bank accounts,” said Lynn Gaspar, Head of Retail Investors at SGX.
“It is always encouraging to hear real-life examples of investors who invested in shares for the long term and enjoyed healthy returns. There are two lessons here for all of us; first, share investing is a crucial part of financial planning and second, investors should monitor their company’s corporate actions and developments,” said David Gerald, President and CEO of the Securities Investors Association (Singapore).
To encourage investors to come forward during this initiative, SGX is waiving the administrative fee for the re-issuance of dividend cheques and dividend crediting until 26 January 2014.
- wong chee tat :)
You could be richer than you think.
According to a release, Singapore Exchange (SGX) wants to locate 89,000 investors who own $68.3 million in unclaimed shares and dividends.
These unclaimed assets comprise $14.6 million of SingTel shares and dividends belonging to investors without Central Depository (CDP) accounts. The 15,000 individuals who own these shares bought them at $2.00 each in the company’s 1993 IPO. The shares have returned more than twice that amount since.
Also, the unclaimed assets account for $53.7 million of dividends belonging to investors who cannot be contacted. Each year, thousands of shareholders do not cash their dividend cheques.
Unclaimed dividends are returned to the relevant listed companies after six years. Currently, 74,000 investors have yet to claim $53.7 million in dividends which SGX is safe-keeping.
“This initiative highlights the benefits Singaporeans enjoy when they invest in shares over the long term. We hope to locate the rightful owners of these assets through this exercise while making Singaporeans more aware of the role share investing can play in their financial planning for their retirement and other needs,” said Chew Sutat, Executive Vice President at SGX.
“Many listed companies pay sizeable dividends. In the past 12 months, the 30 companies making up the Straits Times Index paid $15.5 billion in dividends, equivalent to a 3% yield.
We encourage investors to take advantage of SGX’s direct crediting service which automatically deposits their dividends into their bank accounts,” said Lynn Gaspar, Head of Retail Investors at SGX.
“It is always encouraging to hear real-life examples of investors who invested in shares for the long term and enjoyed healthy returns. There are two lessons here for all of us; first, share investing is a crucial part of financial planning and second, investors should monitor their company’s corporate actions and developments,” said David Gerald, President and CEO of the Securities Investors Association (Singapore).
To encourage investors to come forward during this initiative, SGX is waiving the administrative fee for the re-issuance of dividend cheques and dividend crediting until 26 January 2014.
- wong chee tat :)
Blog Updates
Made minor changes to the blog:
- Fixed a scripting problem in a blog post which caused IE broswer not to load properly. However, Firefox, Safari and Chrome was fine.
- wong chee tat :)
- Fixed a scripting problem in a blog post which caused IE broswer not to load properly. However, Firefox, Safari and Chrome was fine.
- wong chee tat :)
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