SMEs pessimistic about first half of 2017: Survey

SMEs pessimistic about first half of 2017: Survey
Despite the overall pessimism, the SBF-DP SME Index recorded ‘modest optimism’ in expectations of business expansion, capital investment and hiring. TODAY file photo

ANGELA TENG
angelateng@mediacorp.com.sg PUBLISHED: 4:00 AM, DECEMBER 22, 2016UPDATED: 11:13 AM, DECEMBER 22, 2016

SINGAPORE — In an ominous sign for the new year, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) here are pessimistic about their prospects for the first half of next year, an industry index showed yesterday — the first time the quarterly survey showed such negative sentiments since it was started seven years ago.

Despite a better official forecast for Singapore’s economy next year compared to this year, business owners expect turnover and profitability to sour in the coming months, according to the Singapore Business Federation (SBF)-DP SME Index, which fell by 0.4 point to 49.8, compared with the survey conducted in the previous quarter. The index seeks to measure a six-monthly outlook among SMEs, with a reading of 50 and above indicating optimism. This was the first instance where the index fell below 50, indicating pessimism.

Association of Small and Medium Enterprises president Kurt Wee said the pessimism was “not a surprise”.

“It is reflective of the current business sentiment and mood. Businesses are tightening their belts and not expecting a recovery in demand,” he said. “Businesses also expect an increase in cost of (financing) while operation costs remain high. The bright side is businesses have been preparing in the last 18 months for this situation.”

The index, which surveyed more than 3,600 SMEs between October and last month, recorded declines in five out of six sectors, compared with the survey in the previous quarter. SMEs had a negative outlook in commerce/trading, construction/engineering, manufacturing, retail/food and beverage, as well as transport/storage. Only firms in business services had positive sentiments.

The SBF and DP said index scores for turnover and profitability expectations were both at “record lows”. SMEs expect their profits to fall, “indicating how reduced sales and high operational costs are compressing already-lean profit margins and driving many SMEs into losses”, they added.

SBF CEO Ho Meng Kit said SMEs are facing “challenging conditions” in the current economic situation. “This is in line with the slowing overall economy,” said Mr Ho, noting that the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) had cut the top end of its full-year growth forecast for this year by half a percentage point. The economy is now expected to grow between 1 and 1.5 per cent for the whole of this year. For next year, the MTI forecasts gross domestic product to grow between 1 and 3 per cent.

Mr Ho said that recommendations will be put forward for the Government’s Budget next year to help SMEs “navigate the immediate challenges of high business costs”. “The recommendations will also focus on helping SMEs sustain growth particularly during this current economic climate, as well as support scalable, local-based enterprises to develop into globally competitive companies,” he said.

SME owners told TODAY that they are feeling the strain.

Mr Kegan Tan, a retailer selling sports goods, recently closed down his shop at Tampines Safra after sales plunged. “It could be due to the economy or the location. In order to guard against choppy waters, we closed the retail shop a month ago. The lease was expiring and we decided not to renew it even though it was affordable,” he said. His company is looking at focusing more on its online business and other strategies. “Despite the change in the business focus, we are still optimistic,” he said.

Despite the overall pessimism, the SBF-DP SME Index recorded “modest optimism” in expectations of business expansion, capital investment and hiring.

CIMB Private Banking economist Song Seng Wun said: “The economy is affected by uncertainties from abroad, with a very uneven performance for the sectors. However, all is not lost. We keep our fingers crossed on global growth as there are signs of us turning the corner to better exports. Perhaps the worst may be behind us.”


- wong chee tat :)